UKNM: Fairy gold.

[Stewart Dean]

Piers Beckley [

piers [dot] beckleybbc [dot] co [dot] uk

] announced in perfect BBC English.


> as an aside, has anyone else considered the AOL/TW merger as being the

> equivalent of swapping half of your fairy gold for real money

> before it

> evaporates?

>

> piers


Traditional companies are currently undervalued. 'E' companies are mostly

overvalued. A few are truly worth their potential due to the 'first mover

advantage' and innovative ideas that they have brought to a virgin market.


Tomorrow (or the day after) things are going to level out and there are

going to be pure e companies that will literally disappear overnight leaving

a few URLs and some depreciated PCs and Macs that will be worth nowt come

2002.


So how do you turn a potential fatal position into something that will not

get wiped up in the first change in the market?


You could:


  Build a plan B - using a non profitable model to drive a profitable one

(Netscape and     Freeserve both went with portals in this case). This is

high risk and involves keeping on the edge of innovation.


  Build a conventional business.  E business is really still businesses.

Amazon will buy some bricks (prediction) and you'll see all the .com

companies dropping the .coms. Yep monopoly money into real money.


  Sell it all and re-enact leaving Las Vegas (nurse!).


I don't see any bubble bursting, just deflate and become a bit more boring.

They'll be a new market tomorrow anyway for those keen enough.


Just my thought - as always I could be totally wrong.



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