Re: UKNM: Dot Com Fever

[Ray Taylor]

Charles Linn <

charles [dot] linntpd [dot] co [dot] uk

> asks if the "online bubble" is going

to burst.


Again, this reference to the South Sea Bubble is a reference to a business

scam. No more, no less. There was never any substance to the South Sea

Bubble. It was only ever sub-tropical air. So at the risk of quoting Martha

Lane Fox for a second time, I would say that the dot-com "bubble" is not a

bubble at all, because it _does_ have substance, however much you might

think it over-inflated.


Internet business has a future for as long as business has a future and

until something comes along that improves mass communication to the extent

that it displaces the internet. At which point one imagines the best

internet businesses may well migrate.


Let's get this point absolutely straight. All business will be e-business in

a matter on years. Businesses that don't migrate to e-business soon are at

greater risk of collapse than the business that the three plonkers looking

for half a mill at First Tuesday are launching. I would rather punt a few

thousand on those guys than on, say, Tesco (Sorry, Terry, love the stores,

love the coffee shops, really admire the Club Card, but your future does

_not_ look bright until and unless you can get your online act together).


Internet stock generally will go up and down with the market and more so,

given the instability of many of the dot-com business models. But the best

internet stock will rise and rise.


Don't forget that the whole point about an IPO is to raise _capital_ - which

to the uninitiated means money you invest in, or have invested in, a

business enterprise of some sort. Good management teams will celebrate their

millionaire status briefly before moving on to invest the money raised in

providing good, solid customer service. Good management teams will run their

businesses efficiently, build sales revenues, establish their brands, and

otherwise build something solid however questionable their trading

statements are when they launch. Good management teams may well make

strategic acquisitions that will build real, solid, value for their

stakeholders.


Look at Freeserve. They launched themselves to the investing public with

little content, hardly any sales or customers, and a somewhat questionable

business plan. The price went up, crashed down, and recovered. Why? Because

they eventually started to make good use of the money.


Members of this list should be shouting from the rooftops about how

wonderful it is to have all this City, and public, support for what they are

doing. Not only are the financial institutions and private investors

throwing bags of money at us, but they are giving us plenty of time and

space to prove ourselves, and allowing us to make mistakes and try again.

What more could a new business want? Anyone who cannot see this is either

stupid or ungrateful.


So NO, the bubble ain't gonna burst.


Stock will rise and fall, there will be lots of bloody noses, too many

millionaires who did little to earn it, good businesses going to the wall

and bad businesses enjoying unjustified success. There may well be stock

market crashes. Investors might get bored or nervous about tech stock. But

ultimately the graph goes up and up.


So if you are one of those three blokes with red faces, please call me. I

would like to offer you my support and my best wishes. You have a brilliant

future ahead of you.


Anyone still stuck on the good ship Old Economy? Say what the hell you

like - YOUR FEET ARE GETTING WET!!!!!


Ray Taylor - 020 8249 6313

See my next documentary: Licence Fee Fever - when will the Beeb Bubble

Burst?



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Affiliate Solutions Seminar - London, England

A one day seminar for Merchants and Affiliates which

focuses on Revenue Sharing and Affiliate Marketing

for the online industry. Being held April 26, 2000, at the

MayFair Inter-Continental. http://seminars.internet.com

--------------------------------------------------------

Search Engine Strategies Seminar - London, England

Moderated by Search Engine expert, Danny Sullivan. A seminar

for Web marketers which focuses on the latest strategies for

generating traffic from search engines. April 27, 2000 at the

MayFair Inter-Continental.  http://seminars.internet.com

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  To unsubscribe or change your list settings go to

http://www.chinwag.com/uk-netmarketing or

helpchinwag [dot] com