Re: FLASH: When is Flash 5 due ??

[John Dowdell]

At 11:33 PM 6/14/0, Mats Persson wrote:

> Just bought a PC and need to buy Flash for it (Mac only so far)

> and I'd hate to buy F4 at full whack and then pay extra for

> the upgrade a month or so later.


I can definitely empathize with that. Unfortunately, in the middle of a

development cycle it's hard to predict things, so perhaps the best calculus

is whether you can make money off an investment today.


Macromedia Flash 4.0 shipped in June of 1999. Development cycles are

usually in the 12-24 month range, although I've seen some on either side of

that range. There's generally not an announcement until things are locked

down enough that folks can confidently predict a date when the final copies

go golden.


Usually the best times to purchase are near the beginning and end of a

development cycle... you can get the longest return on your investment

towards the beginning of a cycle, and at the very end of a cycle you can

usually get a complementary copy of an upcoming version. It's the long

middle of a development cycle that's difficult to predict, though.


I'd echo what other folks have said here: if you can make money with it

today, then it will repay the investment. You also have the free 30-day

trial, as well as the 30-day return, which combine to give you about two

months out before any announcement... not a panacea, but these bennies can

often help.



(btw, although there was a SneakPeek of potential features for future

Flashes shown at the recent conferences, these aren't close to being the

final shipping builds at all... they're useful as a guideline of potential

future directions, but things can change greatly during the latter

development and testing stages.)



Summary: It's indeed hard to time the future. The best calculus depends on

actual current knowledge, because plans may change in response to future

events. If something can repay your investment today, then that protects

you from second-guessing in the future.


Sorry I didn't really say anything here... hope the feeling may help, though!


jd






John Dowdell, Macromedia Tech Support, San Francisco CA US

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