Re: UKNM: Recession will hit in 1999

[Sajid Mohammed]

---Tim Hayward <

timhhhcl [dot] com

> wrote:

> That's an interesting approach. Experience points to a standard response

> of companies in recession... shed staff.


Depressing, Tim is probably right. However, I was under the impression

that in the last recession ('88 onwards) that companies that did not

cut expenditure on marketing fared much better that those that did. he

general public may reduce their level of purchasing, but there is

still business to be done - surely it's better to maintain your

position and ride out the recession rather than cut out marketing and

lose your position.


IMHO, the people with most to worry about may be traditional

advertising. Companies may elect to shift more expenditure into DM.

There's a general feeling abroad that DM is more cost-effective than

conventional advertising. Much of the advertising seen these days

seems to be more effective as entertainment for the folks at home as

opposed to selling the product.


Worse still, some research indicates that 25% of the ABC1 audience (or

whatever they are called these days) actively go out of their way to

*avoid* advertising. DM on the other hand not only offers a degree of

precision in targeting the audience but is also easier to quantify in

terms of effectiveness.


Can interactive benefit from this? Sure, Freeserve will inevitably

drive down the cost of basic access and hopefully the various telcos

and broadcasters will speed up the penetration of low-cost access

devices such as STBs into the consumer sector.


e-commerce will continue to grow as it's advantages become apparent:

lower overheads passed onto the consumer as cost savings, obtaining

the most competitive price from a variety of suppliers, avoidance of

sales taxes, et cetera. Rather than take the cue from TV advertising

and essentially porting this to the new interactive medium of

DTV/InTV, perhaps we should take DM as a better model.


BTW, I hear that Kwik Save do the best cheap sherry - very

heartwarming stuff by all accounts and very handy for those cold

nights on the Embankment.


Sajid Mohammed

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