Re: UKNM: Newspapers shaft dot-coms big time

[Bryan_Jago]

The budgets being banded around by dotcoms in the Off-line arena are huge

however a few points, that weren't discussed in Media Week, that have to be

considered.


1) Most of the dotcoms are looking to run Full Page, 4clr ads in National Press

to create impact and standout.  The problem here is that Newspapers only have a

limited number of colour slots per issue.  Basic Supply & Demand time, if a

newspaper on has 5 colour slots and 7 companies want colour space, you have a

problem!


2) Are the 'Agency chiefs' trying to cover the fact that they can't buy

competitively??  (Blatant Plug warning!)  We've been working on numerous dotcom

pitches over the past 6 months and not a single cost on the National Press

elements have been any more expensive than our 'regular' clients.


3) Posters are unlikely to rise in the short term, since the ban on tobacco

advertising is going to leave some excess supply in the market.  This is likely

to be filled by the dotcoms, but for the next 12 months, I'd be surprised if the

prices go through the roof as they have on the Outdoor sites in Silicon Valley

(were $5,000 per month 12 months ago and now are $20,000 per month!)


4) With regards to TV, the fact that the stations are only allowed to run 7

minutes of advertising per hour has always caused price fluctuations.  This is a

medium where cost is very much based on Supply vs Demand.  If the dotcoms get

their TV planned far enough in advance to avoid Advance Booking deadlines (circa

2 months prior to the month of showing) then it is unlikely that they are going

to get hit by rates any different from other TV Advertisers.


5) Most Media Owners know not to bite the hand that feeds and the UK has one of

the most saturated media markets in the world.  If one title decides to raise

its rates for dotcom companies, all that will happen is that their volume of

advertising will drop whilst their competitors (who haven't increased rate but

still reach the same audience) enjoy higher volumes.  These sort of price wars

happen every day and I doubt that this situation with the dotcoms will be any

different.


Easiest way (and also the hardest for most companies) to avoid high costs is to

plan way in advance i.e. don't try and book and ad 2 days before it's due to

appear.  By planning in advance and booking as much as possible (you can always

cancel and re-book if the market shifts and you need to change your strategy!),

you'll keep the rates down and increase your chance of getting those nice early

positions!!


Now, all I have to do is sit back and have this e-mail come back and haunt me in

6 months when all my predictions are wrong! ;-)


Bryan



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