UKNM: What if OSes were wines? (Was Wimps)

[Sajid Mohammed]

> Jamie Unwin wrote:

> > Finally software development, within such a fast moving industry

is very risky, a risk I >would not like to take with my own money and

would therefore need an investor who would be >wiling to invest in

technology which may be out of date by the time it is realised and

>therefore unmarketable?


Nice! You'd quite happily piss away someone else's money on a

proposition that you have little faith in...remind me never to

introduce you to any fund managers...


At MBA school, (apparently) they teach you about something called

defensibility. As I understand it, if market conditions were to change

overnight would your enterprise be able to survive? Let's take

Netscape - they originally started out as a browser company (clobbered

by Bill) then a server company (clobbered by Bill again) and then

magically became a portal!


Netscape had defensibility because they had millions upon millions of

people visiting their site and had not fully exploited the revenue

potential early on because they were too focused on the software. Now,

banners and all that are a significant part of their revenue. Sure,

their market cap is way down from their IPO, but that was silly money

anyway. Also, the Netscape brand has value, loyalty etc etc so they

aren't too bad I think.


The naysayers who said that Netscape would be a spent force were wrong

wrong wrong! So Jamie's scenario doesn't necessarily hold out - that's

why they call it new media I guess.


As for this whole 'they don't post a profit' malarkey - market cap is

where it's at, not earnings. Microsoft's market cap is *52* times

earnings! Even if they aren't making big bucks, the shares can be

traded for much money - many VCs are looking for rapid growth and a

quick sale! To put it bluntly, if you'd invested in Cisco at the start

and hung onto your equity you probably be a multi-billionaire by now.


And all this 'obsolete' technology schtick...when Pathfinder went to

Mars it used the VxWorks embedded system which is a positively ancient

platform and very obsolete compared to the Wintel/Mac platforms. But

because it was precisely because of it's age that it was robust

(bug-free) enough to be trusted to run without a General Protection

Fault or a Type 11 blighting the mission!


Think of Vx as a fine vintage, as opposed to Win98 which is some rough

old plonk you bought by the litre at some French roadside, whereas

MacOS 8.5 is a lively Californian with lots of fruit on the palate...I

need a drink.



Sajid Mohammed

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