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Subject: UKNM: What if OSes were wines? (Was Wimps)
From: Sajid Mohammed
Date: Tue, 27 Oct 1998 18:54:05 GMT

> Jamie Unwin wrote:
> > Finally software development, within such a fast moving industry
is very risky, a risk I >would not like to take with my own money and
would therefore need an investor who would be >wiling to invest in
technology which may be out of date by the time it is realised and
>therefore unmarketable?

Nice! You'd quite happily piss away someone else's money on a
proposition that you have little faith in...remind me never to
introduce you to any fund managers...

At MBA school, (apparently) they teach you about something called
defensibility. As I understand it, if market conditions were to change
overnight would your enterprise be able to survive? Let's take
Netscape - they originally started out as a browser company (clobbered
by Bill) then a server company (clobbered by Bill again) and then
magically became a portal!

Netscape had defensibility because they had millions upon millions of
people visiting their site and had not fully exploited the revenue
potential early on because they were too focused on the software. Now,
banners and all that are a significant part of their revenue. Sure,
their market cap is way down from their IPO, but that was silly money
anyway. Also, the Netscape brand has value, loyalty etc etc so they
aren't too bad I think.

The naysayers who said that Netscape would be a spent force were wrong
wrong wrong! So Jamie's scenario doesn't necessarily hold out - that's
why they call it new media I guess.

As for this whole 'they don't post a profit' malarkey - market cap is
where it's at, not earnings. Microsoft's market cap is *52* times
earnings! Even if they aren't making big bucks, the shares can be
traded for much money - many VCs are looking for rapid growth and a
quick sale! To put it bluntly, if you'd invested in Cisco at the start
and hung onto your equity you probably be a multi-billionaire by now.

And all this 'obsolete' technology schtick...when Pathfinder went to
Mars it used the VxWorks embedded system which is a positively ancient
platform and very obsolete compared to the Wintel/Mac platforms. But
because it was precisely because of it's age that it was robust
(bug-free) enough to be trusted to run without a General Protection
Fault or a Type 11 blighting the mission!

Think of Vx as a fine vintage, as opposed to Win98 which is some rough
old plonk you bought by the litre at some French roadside, whereas
MacOS 8.5 is a lively Californian with lots of fruit on the palate...I
need a drink.

Sajid Mohammed
Get your free @yahoo.com address at http://mail.yahoo.com

  Re: UKNM: What if OSes were wines? (Was , Jamie Unwin

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