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Subject: UKNM: Fairy gold.
From: Stewart Dean
Date: Sat, 25 Mar 2000 16:01:17 GMT

Piers Beckley [piers [dot] beckleyatbbc [dot] co [dot] uk] announced in perfect BBC English.

> as an aside, has anyone else considered the AOL/TW merger as being the
> equivalent of swapping half of your fairy gold for real money
> before it
> evaporates?
> piers

Traditional companies are currently undervalued. 'E' companies are mostly
overvalued. A few are truly worth their potential due to the 'first mover
advantage' and innovative ideas that they have brought to a virgin market.

Tomorrow (or the day after) things are going to level out and there are
going to be pure e companies that will literally disappear overnight leaving
a few URLs and some depreciated PCs and Macs that will be worth nowt come

So how do you turn a potential fatal position into something that will not
get wiped up in the first change in the market?

You could:

Build a plan B - using a non profitable model to drive a profitable one
(Netscape and Freeserve both went with portals in this case). This is
high risk and involves keeping on the edge of innovation.

Build a conventional business. E business is really still businesses.
Amazon will buy some bricks (prediction) and you'll see all the .com
companies dropping the .coms. Yep monopoly money into real money.

Sell it all and re-enact leaving Las Vegas (nurse!).

I don't see any bubble bursting, just deflate and become a bit more boring.
They'll be a new market tomorrow anyway for those keen enough.

Just my thought - as always I could be totally wrong.

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