Re: UKNM: Phew what a week!

[Stefan Magdalinski]

James Bruce wrote:

 > 

 > AOL/Time Warner get into bed, Bill Gates moves sideways. What does this all

 > mean for the future of our bread and butter :-)


keeping my New Year's resolution is getting harder and harder.


 > Early thoughts:

 > 1. Smaller eComm sites and brands without the critical mass to partner with

 > the new super portal and emerging vortals will be left with little exposure

 > as the AOL leviathan sucks in late internet entrants into its cosy new

 > world. [Late adopters are far less likely to venture into the 'uncharted'

 > territory of the www, particularly if there is a sea of content within AOL.]


You kidding? my guess is that AOL/TW is considerably less than 1% of the

content  on the web, and that this share will only decrease. probably

less than 10% of the internet's users are AOL also, and this will also

decline. 


Not to mention the struggles that AOL has had to get it's users even

interested in the content, rather than hanging out in it's most popular

application, the Chat rooms.


 > 2. Could this new development further fuel Venture Capital fever, as

 > startups furiously try to reach CM


Your first point says that startups will no longer be able to compete,

so how can the deal simultaneously make them more attractive to VCs? 


and more likely, it's the first concrete example of a long-predicted

phenomenon:

equity rich net.companies reversing into proper business (although AOL

is 10x more credible than most) to insure themselves against the

even-longer-predicted crash. 


 > 3. Cost of Venture Capital (averaged against all ventures) goes up as

 > measured against equity.

 > 4. TWarner Content delivery through Broadband...


(cheap shot, can't help it) if only BT would stop making such a pig's

ear of delivering broadband. I'd love to see some from BT justifying

threatening to sue users for trying to use that evil (AOL-owned)

application, ICQ.


 > 5. Microsoft will become stronger and more sharply focussed but at the same

 > time develop a softer image, some of the sting from the DOJ will dissipate.

 > 6. Microsoft breakup less likely and the ensuing possible fragmentation of

 > the OS sector less likely. Consumer confidence would be unaffected (and

 > possible rise) and they will continue their march into the online world in

 > their millions (let's hope)


bill moving sideways won't change the monopolistic position that

microsoft holds. but then again, linux won't get onto consumer desktops

anytime soon either. but NT is too expensive and too broken to compete

in the server arena anymore. 


 > 

 > Any more thoughts....

 > 

 > James Bruce MBA

 > Head of eBusiness Consultancy Services

 > BT Indirect Channels

 > BT plc


ahh. I see. 


stefan


-- 

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stefanisness [dot] org

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